Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints17
- Dante ExumAssists5
- Kessler EdwardsRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–126
- Q417.1Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2102–126
- Q417.1Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2101–126
- Q417.1Yuri Collins shooting foul100–126
- Q424.1Gui Santos makes 23-foot three point jumper (Yuri Collins assists)100–126
- Q435.0Moses Brown bad pass (Pat Spencer steals)100–123
- Q438.1Moses Brown defensive rebound100–123
- Q441.1Yuri Collins misses 12-foot two point shot100–123
- Q449.0Pat Spencer defensive rebound100–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:16P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 5 – 0 GS · DAL 27% → 33% +5DAL 27% → 33%+5 pts
- Q19:45Kessler Edwards makes 4-foot dunk (Dante Exum assists)DAL 9 – 4 GS · DAL 30% → 33% +4DAL 30% → 33%+4 pts
- Q19:02Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point shot (Stephen Curry assists)DAL 9 – 7 GS · GS 66% → 72% +6GS 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q15:47Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 9 – 17 GS · GS 83% → 87% +4GS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q12:18Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 16 – 22 GS · DAL 12% → 16% +4DAL 12% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML DAL +300 / GS -400
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.5 pts
- GS: Elo 56.7%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -320
- DAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.5 – 119.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +32 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +47 Elo | GS 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 112.319th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 111.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 111.017th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 110.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 15–1316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–26 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–2 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.