New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints29
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Naji MarshallRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–111
- Q418.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2103–111
- Q418.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2102–111
- Q418.1Max Christie shooting foul101–111
- Q428.0Yves Missi enters the game for CJ McCollum101–111
- Q428.0Antonio Reeves enters the game for Zion Williamson101–111
- Q428.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for P.J. Washington101–111
- Q428.0Pelicans Full timeout101–111
- Q428.0CJ McCollum defensive rebound101–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:02Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)NO 84 – 89 DAL · DAL 67% → 78% +11DAL 67% → 78%+11 pts
- Q45:30Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)NO 91 – 97 DAL · DAL 73% → 86% +13DAL 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q45:19Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 94 – 97 DAL · NO 14% → 27% +13NO 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q42:53CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 99 – 103 DAL · NO 5% → 17% +11NO 5% → 17%+11 pts
- Q42:28Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)NO 99 – 106 DAL · DAL 85% → 96% +11DAL 85% → 96%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML NO +195 / DAL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 74.6%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -208
- NO +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.0 – 120.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −44 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +187 Elo | DAL 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 113.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +2.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 112.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.817th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–23 | Road vs home | 17–1112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–32 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 18–24 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–23 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–4 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.