Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints32
- Zach LaVineAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds28
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints43
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists11
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game133–140
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime133–140
- OT16.2Malik Monk bad pass (Jose Alvarado steals)133–140
- OT21.1CJ McCollum makes driving layup (Javonte Green assists)133–140
- OT27.0Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound133–138
- OT32.0Javonte Green misses 25-foot three point jumper133–138
- OT53.1Zach LaVine lost ball turnover (Javonte Green steals)133–138
- OT1:02Jose Alvarado out of bounds bad pass turnover133–138
- OT1:12Trey Murphy III defensive rebound133–138
- OT1:15DeMar DeRozan misses 23-foot three point jumper133–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:03CJ McCollum makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 122 – 121 NO · NO 12% → 33% +20NO 12% → 33%+20 pts
- Q434.0CJ McCollum makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)SAC 122 – 123 NO · NO 29% → 66% +37NO 29% → 66%+37 pts
- Q45.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2SAC 127 – 127 NO · SAC 11% → 51% +40SAC 11% → 51%+40 pts
- OT3:02CJ McCollum makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Trey Murphy III assists)SAC 131 – 133 NO · NO 36% → 60% +24NO 36% → 60%+24 pts
- OT1:56CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)SAC 133 – 136 NO · NO 45% → 74% +29NO 45% → 74%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML SAC -340 / NO +270
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6
- SAC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 72.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -286
- NO +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 121.5 – 114.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | −71 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −56, Kelly Olynyk −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +167 Elo | SAC 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 119.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −9.129th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 108.126th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 117.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 8–1928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−71 Elo- Zion Williamson return to competition reconditioning−56 Elo
- Kelly Olynyk not with team−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–33 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–25 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders | 30–24 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–5 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Feb 12SAC 119 @ NO 111Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 8NO 118 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Dec 12SAC 111 @ NO 109Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Apr 11NO 135 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 53%Miss
- Jan 7NO 133 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 58%Miss
- Dec 4NO 127 @ SAC 117Picked SAC 54%Miss
- Nov 22SAC 112 @ NO 117Picked NO 54%Hit
- Nov 20SAC 93 @ NO 129Picked NO 50%Hit