Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keon EllisPoints27
- Zach LaVineAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints33
- Jose AlvaradoAssists9
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–111
- Q41.0DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound119–111
- Q45.0CJ McCollum misses 23-foot three point jumper119–111
- Q47.1Zion Williamson offensive rebound119–111
- Q410.0CJ McCollum misses 25-foot three point jumper119–111
- Q417.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2119–111
- Q417.1Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2118–111
- Q417.1Jose Alvarado personal foul117–111
- Q421.1Trey Murphy III makes driving layup117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:34Malik Monk makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 11 – 9 NO · SAC 59% → 69% +10SAC 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q34:15Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 83 – 81 NO · SAC 56% → 66% +10SAC 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q47:56Keon Ellis makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 102 – 95 NO · SAC 75% → 86% +10SAC 75% → 86%+10 pts
- Q45:36Antonio Reeves makes 23-foot three point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)SAC 104 – 102 NO · NO 18% → 33% +14NO 18% → 33%+14 pts
- Q44:37Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 107 – 102 NO · SAC 68% → 83% +15SAC 68% → 83%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -5.5
- ML SAC -220 / NO +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3.5
- SAC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 64.5%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- SAC -192
- NO +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −17 | SAC: Usual rotation · NO: Missing Kelly Olynyk −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +104 Elo | SAC 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 119.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −9.229th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 108.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 117.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.39th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 8–1828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−17 Elo- Kelly Olynyk not with team−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–33 | 22–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–25 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders | 30–23 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–5 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.