Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints40
- Alec BurksAssists4
- Kyle AndersonRebounds10
Mavericks- Dante ExumPoints27
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Kessler EdwardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–118
- Q41.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound113–118
- Q45.1Duncan Robinson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot113–118
- Q48.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Kel'el Ware113–118
- Q48.0Heat Full timeout113–118
- Q48.0Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 2 of 2113–118
- Q48.0Kel'el Ware enters the game for Duncan Robinson113–117
- Q48.0Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 1 of 2113–117
- Q48.0Kyle Anderson personal take foul113–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:57Brandon Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)MIA 92 – 94 DAL · DAL 42% → 56% +14DAL 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q44:49Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kessler Edwards assists)MIA 102 – 101 DAL · DAL 24% → 41% +17DAL 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q44:17Kessler Edwards makes driving layup (Naji Marshall assists)MIA 102 – 103 DAL · DAL 41% → 55% +14DAL 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q43:43Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)MIA 102 – 106 DAL · DAL 55% → 76% +20DAL 55% → 76%+20 pts
- Q41:26Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 111 – 114 DAL · MIA 4% → 19% +15MIA 4% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML MIA -150 / DAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- MIA 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 36.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- DAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.5 – 108.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −68 | −121 | MIA: Missing Bam Adebayo −33, Andrew Wiggins −12, Kevin Love −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Kyrie Irving −67, Klay Thompson −16, P.J. Washington −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +97 Elo | DAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 113.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 114.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−68 Elo- Bam Adebayo left knee contusion−33 Elo
- Andrew Wiggins stomach illness−12 Elo
- Kevin Love personal−6 Elo
Mavericks
−121 Elo- Kyrie Irving right shoulder soreness−67 Elo
- Klay Thompson left foot−16 Elo
- P.J. Washington right ankle sprain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–32 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.