Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints22
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints34
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–108
- Q422.0Markelle Fultz makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Mason Jones assists)132–108
- Q438.1Trayce Jackson-Davis makes tip shot132–106
- Q439.1Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound130–106
- Q442.0Pat Spencer misses 7-foot two point shot130–106
- Q449.1Jake LaRavia out of bounds bad pass turnover130–106
- Q452.1Trayce Jackson-Davis lost ball turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)130–106
- Q41:06Mason Jones makes free throw 1 of 1130–106
- Q41:06Pat Spencer shooting foul130–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:07Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)GS 24 – 21 SAC · GS 53% → 60% +7GS 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q11:25Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)GS 26 – 26 SAC · SAC 40% → 47% +7SAC 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q133.0Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)GS 29 – 28 SAC · GS 48% → 55% +7GS 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:34Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 36 – 30 SAC · GS 60% → 67% +7GS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q39:57Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)GS 71 – 63 SAC · SAC 18% → 25% +7SAC 18% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML GS -125 / SAC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- GS: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -114
- SAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 119.5 – 117.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −7 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +19 Elo | GS 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 116.87th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 116.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.813th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 113.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 113.019th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.37th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–27 | 21–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–4 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.