Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints26
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Malik MonkRebounds9
Jazz- Walker KesslerPoints25
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–101
- Q46.0shot clock turnover118–101
- Q430.0Walker Kessler makes layup (KJ Martin assists)118–101
- Q431.2KJ Martin offensive rebound118–99
- Q435.2Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point jumper118–99
- Q455.2Malik Monk makes 15-foot pullup jump shot118–99
- Q41:09Jordan Clarkson makes driving layup (Keyonte George assists)116–99
- Q41:23Domantas Sabonis makes 3-foot layup (Malik Monk assists)116–97
- Q41:36Walker Kessler makes 3-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)114–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:14Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 5 – 7 UTAH · SAC 67% → 73% +6SAC 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q12:44Cody Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)SAC 14 – 19 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 35% +6UTAH 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q120.0Jaden Springer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)SAC 20 – 22 UTAH · UTAH 24% → 30% +6UTAH 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q211:02Isaiah Collier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)SAC 24 – 25 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 28% +6UTAH 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q36:40Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 67 – 59 UTAH · SAC 81% → 87% +6SAC 81% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -9.5
- ML SAC -425 / UTAH +320
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- SAC: Elo 61.3%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- SAC -340
- UTAH +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 123.0 – 113.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −68 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Collin Sexton −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +80 Elo | SAC 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 112.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −7.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 116.930th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 7–2129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−68 Elo- Collin Sexton left ankle sprain−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–35 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–26 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 6–0 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.