Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints42
- Malik MonkAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–130
- Q415.1Damion Baugh makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)88–130
- Q436.0Devin Carter makes tip shot85–130
- Q436.2Devin Carter offensive rebound85–128
- Q438.0Mason Jones misses two point shot85–128
- Q440.2Tidjane Salaun lost ball turnover (Markelle Fultz steals)85–128
- Q450.1Mason Jones makes driving layup85–128
- Q41:03Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound85–126
- Q41:04Moussa Diabate misses free throw 2 of 285–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 3 – 0 SAC · CHA 19% → 24% +5CHA 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q19:48Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 8 – 2 SAC · CHA 24% → 30% +5CHA 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q18:43Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)CHA 8 – 7 SAC · SAC 73% → 79% +5SAC 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q17:50Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHA 10 – 10 SAC · SAC 75% → 80% +5SAC 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:56Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHA 11 – 16 SAC · SAC 83% → 86% +4SAC 83% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -10.5
- ML CHA +400 / SAC -550
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -7
- SAC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 76.0%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -423
- CHA +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 111.0 – 121.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1290 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −14 | CHA: Usual rotation · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +200 Elo | SAC 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 83.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 82.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 116.324th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 14–1421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–27 | 21–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–34 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.