Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Stephen CurryAssists13
- Quinten PostRebounds9
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints44
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Andre DrummondRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–126
- Q419.1Paul George defensive rebound119–126
- Q423.0Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point jumper119–126
- Q426.1Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
- Q426.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Gary Payton II119–125
- Q426.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Gui Santos119–125
- Q426.1Paul George makes free throw 1 of 2119–125
- Q426.1Moses Moody personal take foul119–124
- Q427.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Brandin Podziemski119–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:59Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)GS 108 – 112 PHI · PHI 48% → 66% +17PHI 48% → 66%+17 pts
- Q44:05Guerschon Yabusele makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)GS 112 – 116 PHI · PHI 51% → 71% +20PHI 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q42:01Gary Payton II makes 3-foot two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)GS 116 – 116 PHI · GS 35% → 54% +20GS 35% → 54%+20 pts
- Q41:45Quentin Grimes makes 2-foot two point shotGS 116 – 118 PHI · PHI 46% → 67% +21PHI 46% → 67%+21 pts
- Q41:31Guerschon Yabusele makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)GS 116 – 121 PHI · PHI 69% → 91% +23PHI 69% → 91%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -275 / PHI +225
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- GS: Elo 72.9%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -238
- PHI +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 117.5 – 111.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −34 | GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +172 Elo | GS 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 108.926th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 113.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −4.624th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 114.425th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 10–2026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+8 Elo- Jimmy Butler III back spasms−39 Elo
76ers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–27 | 21–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.