Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- KJ SimpsonPoints16
- Damion BaughAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints16
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–128
- Q40.1shot clock turnover92–128
- Q425.0Seth Curry enters the game for Moussa Diabate92–128
- Q425.0Gui Santos enters the game for Quinten Post92–128
- Q425.0Quinten Post ejected92–128
- Q425.0Moussa Diabate ejected92–128
- Q425.0Kevin Knox II makes free throw 2 of 292–128
- Q425.0Kevin Knox II makes free throw 1 of 292–127
- Q425.0Wendell Moore Jr. shooting foul92–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:46KJ Simpson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotCHA 9 – 9 GS · CHA 9% → 12% +3CHA 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q15:51KJ Simpson makes driving layup (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 14 – 9 GS · CHA 16% → 19% +3CHA 16% → 19%+3 pts
- Q15:43Gary Payton II makes 2-foot layup (Stephen Curry assists)CHA 14 – 11 GS · GS 81% → 84% +3GS 81% → 84%+3 pts
- Q15:15Gary Payton II makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)CHA 14 – 14 GS · GS 84% → 88% +4GS 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q13:46Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)CHA 16 – 19 GS · GS 87% → 90% +3GS 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -17.5
- ML CHA +800 / GS -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -13
- GS 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- GS: Elo 89.2%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -847
- CHA +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 100.0 – 117.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1279 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +35 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +367 Elo | GS 89.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 90.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 90.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 112.518th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 111.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +1.113th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 110.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.915th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–28 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–35 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.