Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints56
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints41
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–115
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound121–115
- Q40.1Wendell Carter Jr. misses 7-foot tip shot121–115
- Q40.1Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound121–115
- Q42.1Franz Wagner misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot121–115
- Q44.0Cole Anthony enters the game for Goga Bitadze121–115
- Q44.0Magic Full timeout121–115
- Q44.0Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2121–115
- Q44.0Goga Bitadze enters the game for Cole Anthony120–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 92 – 87 ORL · GS 65% → 76% +11GS 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q42:56Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three pointerGS 108 – 104 ORL · ORL 6% → 18% +12ORL 6% → 18%+12 pts
- Q42:37Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 111 – 104 ORL · GS 83% → 95% +11GS 83% → 95%+11 pts
- Q42:28Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)GS 111 – 107 ORL · ORL 5% → 16% +11ORL 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q41:31Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 114 – 109 ORL · GS 74% → 94% +20GS 74% → 94%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML GS -195 / ORL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- GS: Elo 60.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -175
- ORL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 108.5 – 104.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −3 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +74 Elo | GS 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 103.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 105.51st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 105.828th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 107.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 18–1213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–27 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 20–14 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 22–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–0 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.