Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints23
- Ja MorantAssists5
- Brandon ClarkeRebounds11
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints25
- Cole AnthonyAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–104
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound105–104
- Q40.0Jaren Jackson Jr. blocks Paolo Banchero 's 8-foot driving floating jump shot105–104
- Q48.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound105–104
- Q410.1Santi Aldama misses free throw 2 of 2105–104
- Q410.1Goga Bitadze enters the game for Cole Anthony105–104
- Q410.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound105–104
- Q410.1Santi Aldama misses free throw 1 of 2105–104
- Q410.1Paolo Banchero personal take foul105–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34.0Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)MEM 80 – 83 ORL · ORL 48% → 60% +12ORL 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q410:50Cole Anthony makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jett Howard assists)MEM 85 – 88 ORL · ORL 48% → 61% +13ORL 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q49:56Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 85 – 91 ORL · ORL 62% → 74% +12ORL 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q41:50Ja Morant makes driving layupMEM 104 – 104 ORL · MEM 30% → 51% +20MEM 30% → 51%+20 pts
- Q445.0Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2MEM 105 – 104 ORL · MEM 51% → 67% +16MEM 51% → 67%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML MEM -130 / ORL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4
- MEM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.4 pts
- MEM: Elo 65.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -119
- ORL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 112.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ORL and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | −1 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +112 Elo | MEM 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 104.230th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.1 | Margin | −1.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 106.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 107.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 17–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−1 Elo- Jonathan Isaac illness−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–20 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–11 | 19–14 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–20 | 22–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–1 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.