Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds15
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Zaccharie RisacherRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–108
- Q42.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound114–108
- Q46.1Trae Young misses 24-foot three point jumper114–108
- Q47.2Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound114–108
- Q412.0Trae Young misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot114–108
- Q415.0Hawks Full timeout114–108
- Q415.0Dyson Daniels defensive rebound114–108
- Q415.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope misses free throw 2 of 2114–108
- Q415.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2114–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:46Trae Young makes driving layupORL 101 – 101 ATL · ATL 35% → 49% +14ATL 35% → 49%+14 pts
- Q43:22Cole Anthony makes 10-foot two point shotORL 103 – 101 ATL · ORL 51% → 66% +15ORL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q42:57Caris LeVert makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotORL 103 – 103 ATL · ATL 33% → 49% +16ATL 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q42:43Cole Anthony makes 25-foot three pointerORL 106 – 103 ATL · ORL 51% → 75% +24ORL 51% → 75%+24 pts
- Q42:08Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointer (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 109 – 103 ATL · ORL 78% → 93% +16ORL 78% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -125 / ATL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3
- ORL 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 38.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.0 – 110.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +26 | ORL: Usual rotation · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +85 Elo | ATL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.0 | Points scored | 116.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Points allowed | 119.126th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 110.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 112.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 12–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–29 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 18–14 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 9–15 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–34 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.