Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Ty JeromePoints20
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–82
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–82
- Q420.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound122–82
- Q424.0Jett Howard misses 23-foot three point jumper122–82
- Q439.1shot clock turnover122–82
- Q41:04Caleb Houstan makes two point shot (Anthony Black assists)122–82
- Q41:14Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 2-foot dunk (Craig Porter Jr. assists)122–80
- Q41:25Javonte Green defensive rebound120–80
- Q41:25Trevelin Queen misses running pullup jump shot120–80
- Q41:28Jett Howard defensive rebound120–80
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 3 – 0 ORL · CLE 68% → 74% +5CLE 68% → 74%+5 pts
- Q111:06Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CLE 6 – 0 ORL · CLE 73% → 78% +5CLE 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q110:23Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)CLE 8 – 3 ORL · ORL 19% → 23% +5ORL 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q16:38De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three pointerCLE 13 – 9 ORL · CLE 69% → 75% +6CLE 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q15:53De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 16 – 9 ORL · CLE 75% → 80% +5CLE 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -250 / ORL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 74.9%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -214
- ORL +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.0 – 105.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1682 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +8 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +190 Elo | CLE 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.9 | Points scored | 104.330th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 105.21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.2 | Margin | −0.917th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.5 | Offense rating | 106.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 107.02nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–6 | Road vs home | 18–1112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–19 | 30–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–17 | 20–14 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–19 | 22–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–5 ORL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Nov 1ORL 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 72%Hit
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 30ORL 103 @ CLE 104PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- Apr 27CLE 89 @ ORL 112PlayoffsPicked ORL 56%Hit
- Apr 25CLE 83 @ ORL 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 86 @ CLE 96PlayoffsPicked CLE 58%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 83 @ CLE 97PlayoffsPicked CLE 56%Hit