Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points22
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Evan MobleyAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–129
- Q43.1Max Strus defensive rebound123–129
- Q45.1Luke Kennard misses 23-foot three point jumper123–129
- Q49.0Desmond Bane enters the game for Brandon Clarke123–129
- Q49.0Luke Kennard enters the game for Zach Edey123–129
- Q49.0Grizzlies Full timeout123–129
- Q49.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2123–129
- Q49.0Brandon Clarke enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.123–128
- Q49.0Jaren Jackson Jr. enters the game for Desmond Bane123–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:26Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 63 – 62 CLE · MEM 33% → 42% +9MEM 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q39:21Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 66 – 66 CLE · MEM 31% → 39% +9MEM 31% → 39%+9 pts
- Q38:35Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three pointerMEM 66 – 71 CLE · CLE 66% → 75% +8CLE 66% → 75%+8 pts
- Q49:49Ty Jerome makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 90 – 98 CLE · CLE 78% → 87% +9CLE 78% → 87%+9 pts
- Q47:56Ty Jerome makes 30-foot running pullup jump shot (Max Strus assists)MEM 95 – 104 CLE · CLE 82% → 91% +8CLE 82% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML MEM +180 / CLE -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 66.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -191
- MEM +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 121.0 – 126.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1677 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −8 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +122 Elo | CLE 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 122.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 111.510th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +11.32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 120.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 109.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 26–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–21 | 37–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–12 | 34–17 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 35–21 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.