Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints16
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists6
- Richaun HolmesRebounds10
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints23
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Goga BitadzeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–110
- Q414.1shot clock turnover90–110
- Q439.0Bub Carrington makes 17-foot pullup jump shot90–110
- Q451.0Bub Carrington defensive rebound88–110
- Q454.0Cory Joseph misses 25-foot three point jumper88–110
- Q41:04Bub Carrington makes 14-foot running pullup jump shot88–110
- Q41:07Bub Carrington defensive rebound86–110
- Q41:09Trevelin Queen misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot86–110
- Q41:31Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 2 of 286–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:13Corey Kispert makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 26 – 22 ORL · WSH 19% → 24% +5WSH 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q126.1Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)WSH 26 – 27 ORL · ORL 79% → 84% +5ORL 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q29:41Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)WSH 33 – 32 ORL · ORL 74% → 79% +6ORL 74% → 79%+6 pts
- Q24:09Justin Champagnie makes 25-foot three point shot (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 44 – 43 ORL · WSH 17% → 23% +6WSH 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q310:09Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three pointer (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)WSH 51 – 56 ORL · ORL 81% → 86% +6ORL 81% → 86%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -13.5
- ML WSH +550 / ORL -900
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -9
- ORL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 81.4%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -585
- WSH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 101.0 – 114.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1287 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | +8 | WSH: Missing Marcus Smart −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +257 Elo | ORL 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 87.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 86.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 104.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.2 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 106.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–21 | Road vs home | 17–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−52 Elo- Marcus Smart finger injury−14 Elo
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–30 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 19–14 |
| Underdog | 25–30 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 22–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.