Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints19
- Kyle KuzmaAssists5
- Brook LopezRebounds9
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints22
- Jordan PooleAssists5
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–101
- Q40.1Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound104–101
- Q43.1Khris Middleton misses 28-foot three point shot104–101
- Q45.0Wizards Full timeout104–101
- Q48.0Kyshawn George defensive rebound104–101
- Q411.1Kyle Kuzma misses 26-foot three point jumper104–101
- Q430.1Brook Lopez defensive rebound104–101
- Q433.1Brook Lopez blocks Khris Middleton 's 6-foot driving layup104–101
- Q438.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly104–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:39Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 100 – 96 WSH · WSH 5% → 16% +11WSH 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q42:11Jordan Poole makes driving layupMIL 100 – 98 WSH · WSH 14% → 28% +14WSH 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q41:01Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)MIL 102 – 101 WSH · WSH 7% → 34% +27WSH 7% → 34%+27 pts
- Q438.1Brook Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 103 – 101 WSH · MIL 69% → 83% +14MIL 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q438.1Brook Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2MIL 104 – 101 WSH · MIL 83% → 92% +9MIL 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -5.5
- ML MIL -215 / WSH +175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.0%, market 65.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -188
- WSH +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.0 – 112.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1290 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −41 | −5 | MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +123 Elo | MIL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 108.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 122.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −13.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 104.730th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 117.630th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 5–2330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−41 Elo- Bobby Portis suspended by league−21 Elo
Wizards
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–29 | 24–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | — |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 24–30 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.