Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints34
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
76ers- Andre DrummondPoints25
- Quentin GrimesAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–102
- Q43.0shot clock turnover119–102
- Q427.0Adem Bona makes free throw 2 of 2119–102
- Q427.076ers offensive team rebound119–101
- Q427.0Adem Bona misses free throw 1 of 2119–101
- Q427.0Jabari Walker shooting foul119–101
- Q438.1Jabari Walker makes two point shot119–101
- Q440.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound117–101
- Q443.1Jabari Walker blocks Jeff Dowtin Jr. 's 2-foot driving layup117–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:18Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 54 – 58 PHI · POR 32% → 40% +8POR 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q311:39Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 59 – 61 PHI · POR 37% → 46% +9POR 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q39:14Anfernee Simons makes 29-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 70 – 64 PHI · POR 61% → 69% +9POR 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q37:52Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 73 – 66 PHI · POR 64% → 73% +9POR 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q31:45Duop Reath makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 87 – 81 PHI · POR 63% → 73% +10POR 63% → 73%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- POR -1.5
- ML POR -120 / PHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- POR: Elo 61.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- POR -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 116.0 – 114.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | −39 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Paul George −28 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +84 Elo | POR 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.5 | Points scored | 109.226th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 113.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.9 | Margin | −4.424th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 114.425th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 11–2025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−39 Elo- Paul George left groin soreness−28 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–26 | 22–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.