Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints36
- Shaedon SharpeAssists5
- Shaedon SharpeRebounds8
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints24
- Khris MiddletonAssists5
- Bub CarringtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–121
- Q44.0shot clock turnover129–121
- Q428.0Jordan Poole makes 1-foot driving dunk129–121
- Q433.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2129–119
- Q433.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Marcus Smart128–119
- Q433.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2128–119
- Q433.1Kyshawn George personal take foul127–119
- Q434.1Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Corey Kispert127–119
- Q434.1Trail Blazers defensive team rebound127–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:43Scoot Henderson makes 22-foot three point shot (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 83 – 82 WSH · POR 53% → 64% +11POR 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q31:53Corey Kispert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)POR 85 – 86 WSH · WSH 33% → 44% +11WSH 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31:19Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jabari Walker assists)POR 88 – 86 WSH · POR 56% → 67% +11POR 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q47:55Corey Kispert makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)POR 102 – 99 WSH · WSH 17% → 28% +11WSH 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q44:03Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 116 – 110 WSH · POR 75% → 89% +14POR 75% → 89%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -6.5
- ML POR -240 / WSH +200
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -4.5
- POR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- POR: Elo 67.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -212
- WSH +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 119.5 – 113.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1296 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +4 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −16, Robert Williams III −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +129 Elo | POR 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.7 | Points scored | 108.127th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 121.130th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.5 | Margin | −13.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 104.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 116.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.5 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 6–2430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+20 Elo- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−16 Elo
- Robert Williams III left hip injury−8 Elo
Wizards
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–26 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.