Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Ziaire WilliamsPoints19
- Killian HayesAssists8
- Trendon WatfordRebounds7
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists5
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–107
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound99–107
- Q40.1Keon Johnson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–107
- Q48.1Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 299–107
- Q48.1Corey Kispert makes free throw 1 of 299–106
- Q48.1Nic Claxton personal foul99–105
- Q49.1Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 199–105
- Q49.1(00:09.4) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)99–104
- Q49.1Ziaire Williams away from play foul99–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:05Keon Johnson makes 27-foot three pointer (Killian Hayes assists)BKN 95 – 92 WSH · BKN 52% → 69% +17BKN 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q44:57Jordan Poole makes driving layupBKN 95 – 96 WSH · WSH 42% → 54% +13WSH 42% → 54%+13 pts
- Q44:45Trendon Watford makes driving layupBKN 97 – 96 WSH · BKN 45% → 58% +13BKN 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q43:12Bilal Coulibaly makes driving layupBKN 97 – 98 WSH · WSH 40% → 56% +16WSH 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q42:38Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three pointerBKN 97 – 101 WSH · WSH 57% → 80% +23WSH 57% → 80%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML BKN -140 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -4.5
- BKN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.7 pts
- BKN: Elo 67.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 110.0 – 108.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1282 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | −6 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −23 · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +130 Elo | BKN 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.9 | Points scored | 108.127th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 121.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −13.430th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 104.330th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 117.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 5–2430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−24 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−23 Elo
Wizards
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–25 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | — |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 25–31 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.