Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints30
- Deni AvdijaAssists10
- Deni AvdijaRebounds12
Cavaliers- De'Andre HunterPoints32
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game129–133
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime129–133
- OT0.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound129–133
- OT0.0Anfernee Simons misses 32-foot jump bank shot129–133
- OT4.0Isaac Okoro enters the game for Ty Jerome129–133
- OT4.0Trail Blazers Full timeout129–133
- OT4.0De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2129–133
- OT4.0De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 1 of 2129–132
- OT4.0Anfernee Simons personal foul129–131
- OT4.0De'Andre Hunter defensive rebound129–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q431.1Shaedon Sharpe makes tip shotPOR 115 – 115 CLE · POR 14% → 46% +33POR 14% → 46%+33 pts
- Q415.1Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)POR 115 – 118 CLE · CLE 52% → 99% +46CLE 52% → 99%+46 pts
- Q41.0Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2POR 119 – 119 CLE · POR <1% → 49% +49POR <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT44.0Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 129 – 128 CLE · POR 17% → 62% +45POR 17% → 62%+45 pts
- OT30.1De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)POR 129 – 131 CLE · CLE 34% → 87% +53CLE 34% → 87%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML POR +380 / CLE -550
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7.5
- CLE 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 76.8%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -406
- POR +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 124.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1701 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −7 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +208 Elo | CLE 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 122.92nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 111.39th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.9 | Margin | +11.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 120.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 109.46th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 27–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+34 Elo- Robert Williams III left knee sprain−7 Elo
Cavaliers
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–26 | 40–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 36–17 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.