Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints41
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints46
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–116
- Q415.0Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound123–116
- Q418.1Jaylen Brown misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–116
- Q422.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2123–116
- Q422.1Dean Wade enters the game for Darius Garland122–116
- Q422.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2122–116
- Q422.1Derrick White personal take foul121–116
- Q422.1Max Strus defensive rebound121–116
- Q426.2De'Andre Hunter blocks Jayson Tatum 's 26-foot three point shot121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:49Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CLE 106 – 106 BOS · BOS 35% → 50% +15BOS 35% → 50%+15 pts
- Q47:31Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 109 – 106 BOS · CLE 50% → 65% +15CLE 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q43:15Jaylen Brown makes 19-foot pullup jump shotCLE 114 – 114 BOS · BOS 35% → 50% +16BOS 35% → 50%+16 pts
- Q42:45Donovan Mitchell makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Dean Wade assists)CLE 116 – 114 BOS · CLE 50% → 67% +17CLE 50% → 67%+17 pts
- Q41:57Donovan Mitchell makes driving layupCLE 118 – 114 BOS · CLE 70% → 85% +15CLE 70% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -0.5
- ML CLE -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- BOS 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 42.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.0 – 116.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1694 | 1667 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −27 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +51 Elo | CLE 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.9 | Points scored | 116.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 108.13rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.7 | Margin | +8.83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.7 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 108.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–6 | Road vs home | 18–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–19 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–17 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 38–20 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–8 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Feb 4BOS 112 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Dec 1BOS 111 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 53%Hit
- Nov 19CLE 117 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit
- May 11BOS 106 @ CLE 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 9CLE 118 @ BOS 94PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- May 7CLE 95 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit