Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints27
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–117
- Q413.1shot clock turnover97–117
- Q437.1JD Davison makes free throw 3 of 397–117
- Q437.1JD Davison makes free throw 2 of 396–117
- Q437.1JD Davison makes free throw 1 of 395–117
- Q437.1Daniss Jenkins shooting foul94–117
- Q41:00Ronald Holland II out of bounds bad pass turnover94–117
- Q41:04Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)94–117
- Q41:16Lindy Waters III makes 29-foot three pointer (Paul Reed assists)94–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:03Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)BOS 55 – 59 DET · DET 44% → 53% +9DET 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q310:23Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 58 – 61 DET · BOS 41% → 50% +9BOS 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q310:08Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BOS 58 – 64 DET · DET 50% → 59% +9DET 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q39:53Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 61 – 64 DET · BOS 41% → 50% +9BOS 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q39:34Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumperBOS 61 – 67 DET · DET 50% → 60% +9DET 50% → 60%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML BOS -190 / DET +160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- DET +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.5 – 110.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1682 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −34 | +64 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 114.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.3 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 111.914th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 111.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–6 | Road vs home | 15–1316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–32 | 33–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–30 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–0 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.