LA Clippers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints18
- James HardenAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–106
- Q42.1Kris Dunn makes layup (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)97–106
- Q411.0shot clock turnover95–106
- Q435.1Amir Coffey bad pass (Jalen Duren steals)95–106
- Q440.1Ausar Thompson makes 2-foot dunk95–106
- Q441.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound95–104
- Q443.2Amir Coffey misses 23-foot three point jumper95–104
- Q452.2James Harden defensive rebound95–104
- Q455.0Dennis Schroder misses free throw 2 of 295–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:25Nicolas Batum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 52 – 51 DET · LAC 39% → 48% +9LAC 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:12Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 55 – 52 DET · LAC 45% → 54% +9LAC 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q331.1Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)LAC 75 – 83 DET · DET 73% → 82% +9DET 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q45:59James Harden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 88 – 93 DET · LAC 11% → 21% +10LAC 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q42:53Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)LAC 90 – 98 DET · DET 87% → 96% +9DET 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML LAC +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.2 pts
- DET: Elo 69.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- LAC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.0 – 111.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −37 | +59 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +145 Elo | DET 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.9 | Points scored | 114.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 113.617th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 111.211th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–24 | 32–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.