Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints38
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Cade CunninghamRebounds7
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game148–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter148–143
- Q40.1Georges Niang bad pass (Dennis Schroder steals)148–143
- Q41.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 2 of 2148–143
- Q41.0Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye147–143
- Q41.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 1 of 2147–143
- Q41.0Trae Young personal take foul146–143
- Q41.1Dennis Schroder enters the game for Isaiah Stewart146–143
- Q41.1Terance Mann enters the game for Clint Capela146–143
- Q41.1Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu146–143
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:12Ausar Thompson makes 2-foot two point shotDET 137 – 135 ATL · DET 51% → 69% +19DET 51% → 69%+19 pts
- Q42:03Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerDET 137 – 138 ATL · ATL 30% → 59% +29ATL 30% → 59%+29 pts
- Q41:49Cade Cunningham makes 7-foot two point shotDET 139 – 138 ATL · DET 40% → 61% +21DET 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q41:38Dyson Daniels makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotDET 139 – 140 ATL · ATL 38% → 60% +22ATL 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q433.0Dennis Schroder makes driving layupDET 141 – 140 ATL · DET 32% → 69% +37DET 32% → 69%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -130 / ATL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 56.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 120.0 – 118.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +21 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 119.126th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.521st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 112.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–25 | 27–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.