Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints28
- Keldon JohnsonAssists5
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–110
- Q417.1Blake Wesley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)125–110
- Q429.1Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2125–107
- Q429.1Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 2124–107
- Q429.1(00:29.6) [Pistons] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)123–107
- Q429.1Charles Bassey shooting foul123–107
- Q430.1Paul Reed offensive rebound123–107
- Q431.1Marcus Sasser misses 19-foot step back jumpshot123–107
- Q453.1David Duke Jr. makes two point shot (Charles Bassey assists)123–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:46De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)DET 45 – 49 SA · SA 43% → 51% +8SA 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q25:21Jeremy Sochan makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DET 45 – 52 SA · SA 51% → 59% +8SA 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q22:44Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 53 – 58 SA · DET 37% → 45% +8DET 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q255.1Tobias Harris makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 60 – 62 SA · DET 44% → 53% +9DET 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q233.1Cade Cunningham makes 28-foot three pointerDET 63 – 62 SA · DET 53% → 61% +9DET 53% → 61%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -180 / SA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- DET: Elo 65.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- SA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 119.5 – 115.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +40 | −4 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +112 Elo | DET 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 113.115th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 114.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.218th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 14–1216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–25 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–2 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.