Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints24
- Jayson TatumAssists11
- Payton PritchardRebounds7
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- RJ BarrettRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–101
- Q412.1Neemias Queta defensive goaltending violation111–101
- Q412.1Immanuel Quickley makes 3-foot two point shot111–101
- Q420.0Payton Pritchard makes two point shot111–99
- Q423.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound109–99
- Q427.0Immanuel Quickley misses running pullup jump shot109–99
- Q432.1RJ Barrett defensive rebound109–99
- Q435.0Payton Pritchard misses 24-foot three point jumper109–99
- Q458.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2109–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:17Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three pointer (Jonathan Mogbo assists)BOS 35 – 34 TOR · TOR 16% → 20% +5TOR 16% → 20%+5 pts
- Q25:46Gradey Dick makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)BOS 44 – 43 TOR · TOR 16% → 22% +5TOR 16% → 22%+5 pts
- Q25:32Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 47 – 43 TOR · BOS 78% → 84% +5BOS 78% → 84%+5 pts
- Q24:41Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 52 – 46 TOR · BOS 82% → 87% +5BOS 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q329.1Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 86 – 76 TOR · BOS 88% → 93% +5BOS 88% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -650 / TOR +425
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -455
- TOR +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.5 – 108.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1678 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +6 | BOS: Missing Al Horford −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +228 Elo | BOS 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 110.921st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 116.425th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.3 | Margin | −5.625th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 108.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–6 | Road vs home | 13–1823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+6 Elo- Al Horford left toe−1 Elo
Raptors
+6 Elo- Jakob Poeltl right hip−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–31 | 34–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–29 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 31–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–1 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.