Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints29
- Jamal SheadAssists5
- Gradey DickRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game120–111
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime120–111
- OT8.1shot clock turnover120–111
- OT32.1Gradey Dick personal take foul120–111
- OT34.0RJ Barrett makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot120–111
- OT45.2Andrew Wiggins makes driving layup120–109
- OT1:01Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound118–109
- OT1:05Scottie Barnes misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot118–109
- OT1:09Andrew Wiggins makes 6-foot two point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)118–109
- OT1:26Bam Adebayo defensive rebound116–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:48RJ Barrett makes 28-foot three pointer (Immanuel Quickley assists)MIA 98 – 98 TOR · TOR 27% → 47% +21TOR 27% → 47%+21 pts
- Q42:48Andrew Wiggins makes driving layupMIA 101 – 100 TOR · MIA 44% → 61% +17MIA 44% → 61%+17 pts
- Q41:56Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 101 – 103 TOR · TOR 38% → 68% +30TOR 38% → 68%+30 pts
- Q41:43Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 104 – 103 TOR · MIA 31% → 63% +32MIA 31% → 63%+32 pts
- Q453.1RJ Barrett makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)MIA 104 – 107 TOR · TOR 64% → 87% +23TOR 64% → 87%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML MIA -165 / TOR +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.0 – 107.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −6 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 116.525th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −5.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 108.525th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.425th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 12–1723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–33 | 33–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–18 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–2 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.