Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Nick RichardsRebounds8
Raptors- Chris BoucherPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Chris BoucherRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–127
- Q410.1Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound109–127
- Q414.2TyTy Washington Jr. misses 17-foot pullup jump shot109–127
- Q424.2Suns defensive team rebound109–127
- Q426.1Ryan Dunn blocks Jared Rhoden 's 1-foot driving layup109–127
- Q444.1A.J. Lawson defensive rebound109–127
- Q447.1Ryan Dunn misses driving floating jump shot109–127
- Q456.1Oso Ighodaro offensive rebound109–127
- Q458.1TyTy Washington Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper109–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:47Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)PHX 75 – 81 TOR · TOR 56% → 66% +10TOR 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q410:47Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)PHX 86 – 93 TOR · TOR 64% → 75% +11TOR 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q45:02Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 103 – 105 TOR · PHX 23% → 40% +17PHX 23% → 40%+17 pts
- Q44:42Chris Boucher makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)PHX 103 – 108 TOR · TOR 61% → 78% +17TOR 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q44:13Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)PHX 103 – 111 TOR · TOR 80% → 91% +12TOR 80% → 91%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -145 / TOR +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- PHX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 48.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -133
- TOR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.0 – 113.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | −3 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 110.622nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 116.625th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −6.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 108.525th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 114.425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 12–1823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–36 | 33–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–14 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–29 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.