Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints25
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Dalano BantonRebounds8
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints16
- Killian HayesAssists4
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–102
- Q43.2shot clock turnover121–102
- Q428.0Tyrese Martin out of bounds bad pass turnover121–102
- Q431.0Dalano Banton bad pass (Tyrese Martin steals)121–102
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2121–102
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2121–101
- Q441.1Sidy Cissoko personal foul121–100
- Q443.1Rayan Rupert bad pass (Reece Beekman steals)121–100
- Q455.0Dalano Banton defensive rebound121–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:30Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)POR 7 – 9 BKN · BKN 45% → 51% +6BKN 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q15:46Keon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)POR 19 – 16 BKN · BKN 34% → 40% +6BKN 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q15:32Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 22 – 16 BKN · POR 60% → 66% +6POR 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q12:05Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 29 – 22 BKN · POR 62% → 69% +6POR 62% → 69%+6 pts
- Q11:40Tyrese Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)POR 29 – 25 BKN · BKN 31% → 38% +7BKN 31% → 38%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- POR -1.5
- ML POR -125 / BKN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- POR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- POR: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- POR -114
- BKN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.0 – 109.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +6 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −13, Robert Williams III −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +34 Elo | POR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 111.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | −6.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 107.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.7 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 9–1927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+13 Elo- Deni Avdija left quad contusion−13 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee sprain−9 Elo
Nets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–26 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 24–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.