Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints27
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds17
Nets- Day'Ron SharpePoints25
- Cameron JohnsonAssists7
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–121
- Q410.1Alex Caruso defensive rebound129–121
- Q412.1Killian Hayes misses driving layup129–121
- Q419.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2129–121
- Q419.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Aaron Wiggins128–121
- Q419.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2128–121
- Q419.1Cameron Johnson personal take foul127–121
- Q420.1Thunder Full timeout127–121
- Q420.1Alex Caruso enters the game for Cason Wallace127–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:37Killian Hayes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)OKC 77 – 90 BKN · BKN 51% → 62% +10BKN 51% → 62%+10 pts
- Q31:24Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 88 – 94 BKN · OKC 43% → 55% +12OKC 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q411:03Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 95 – 96 BKN · OKC 59% → 71% +12OKC 59% → 71%+12 pts
- Q410:37Tyrese Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)OKC 95 – 99 BKN · BKN 30% → 42% +12BKN 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q48:24Alex Caruso makes driving layup (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 101 – 103 BKN · OKC 53% → 63% +10OKC 53% → 63%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML OKC -2000 / BKN +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.2%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1048
- BKN +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.0 – 100.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1710 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −37 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +334 Elo | OKC 87.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 90.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 90.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 104.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.6 | Points allowed | 110.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | −6.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 106.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 113.021st of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–7 | Road vs home | 9–1825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−37 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–22 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–21 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 23–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.