Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Naz ReidRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Bol BolRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–98
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound116–98
- Q40.0Collin Gillespie misses 55-foot three point pullup jump shot116–98
- Q42.1Leonard Miller makes 6-foot dunk116–98
- Q46.0Damion Lee lost ball turnover (Leonard Miller steals)114–98
- Q412.1Damion Lee defensive rebound114–98
- Q415.0Luka Garza misses 11-foot two point shot114–98
- Q436.0Ryan Dunn makes two point shot114–98
- Q438.2Ryan Dunn offensive rebound114–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:02Bol Bol makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)MIN 55 – 60 PHX · PHX 55% → 64% +9PHX 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q39:39Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 58 – 60 PHX · MIN 36% → 45% +9MIN 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q38:57Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 61 – 62 PHX · MIN 38% → 48% +9MIN 38% → 48%+9 pts
- Q37:07Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 66 – 64 PHX · MIN 47% → 57% +10MIN 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q36:24Bradley Beal makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MIN 68 – 67 PHX · PHX 36% → 46% +10PHX 36% → 46%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -115 / PHX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- PHX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 118.5 – 116.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +1 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +105 Elo | MIN 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 114.014th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −1.919th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 115.827th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 17–1213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–35 | 22–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Jan 29MIN 121 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 17PHX 117 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit
- Apr 23PHX 93 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Hit
- Apr 20PHX 95 @ MIN 120PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 14PHX 125 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 65%Miss
- Apr 5MIN 87 @ PHX 97Picked MIN 51%Miss