Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Bradley BealAssists11
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints29
- Desmond BaneAssists9
- Zach EdeyRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game148–151
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime148–151
- OT0.1Suns offensive team rebound148–151
- OT0.1Kevin Durant misses 28-foot three point shot148–151
- OT2.1Mason Plumlee enters the game for Bol Bol148–151
- OT2.1Suns Full timeout148–151
- OT3.1Suns offensive team rebound148–151
- OT3.1Bol Bol vs. Santi Aldama (Bradley Beal gains possession)148–151
- OT5.2Kevin Durant misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot148–151
- OT8.0Brandon Clarke personal take foul148–151
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:09Grayson Allen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 129 – 126 MEM · PHX 45% → 68% +24PHX 45% → 68%+24 pts
- Q41:02Bol Bol makes 8-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 133 – 132 MEM · PHX 33% → 61% +28PHX 33% → 61%+28 pts
- Q41.2Ja Morant makes 17-foot driving floating jump shot (Santi Aldama assists)PHX 137 – 137 MEM · MEM <1% → 50% +50MEM <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:10Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)PHX 148 – 147 MEM · MEM 11% → 40% +30MEM 11% → 40%+30 pts
- OT37.0Brandon Clarke makes tip shotPHX 148 – 149 MEM · MEM 35% → 70% +35MEM 35% → 70%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -6.5
- ML PHX +225 / MEM -275
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5.5
- MEM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MEM: Elo 71.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MEM -238
- PHX +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 119.5 – 126.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +35 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +158 Elo | MEM 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 122.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 116.024th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +6.84th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 115.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 109.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 106.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 21–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–37 | 35–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 25–12 |
| Underdog | 7–14 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.