New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Zion WilliamsonAssists11
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints36
- Tyus JonesAssists12
- Nick RichardsRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–116
- Q47.1CJ McCollum makes 1-foot driving dunk (Karlo Matkovic assists)124–116
- Q418.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2122–116
- Q418.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Tyus Jones122–115
- Q418.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2122–115
- Q418.1CJ McCollum shooting foul122–114
- Q423.0CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2122–114
- Q423.0CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2121–114
- Q423.0Nick Richards personal foul120–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:43Devin Booker makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Tyus Jones assists)NO 99 – 99 PHX · PHX 43% → 58% +15PHX 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q45:55Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three pointerNO 108 – 101 PHX · NO 66% → 80% +14NO 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q45:41Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)NO 108 – 104 PHX · PHX 19% → 34% +15PHX 19% → 34%+15 pts
- Q45:22CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 111 – 104 PHX · NO 67% → 82% +15NO 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q43:26Karlo Matkovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 116 – 108 PHX · NO 80% → 92% +12NO 80% → 92%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -6.5
- ML NO +220 / PHX -270
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 61.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- PHX -234
- NO +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.0 – 121.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −9 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +80 Elo | PHX 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.5 | Points scored | 113.813th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −2.120th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 113.59th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 115.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.423rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–24 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–33 | 21–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 18–25 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–26 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–2 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.