San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints20
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds12
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Bruce BrownAssists6
- Kelly OlynykRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–109
- Q49.2Pelicans defensive team rebound103–109
- Q412.1De'Aaron Fox misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot103–109
- Q416.0Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2103–109
- Q416.0Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2103–108
- Q416.0Keldon Johnson personal foul103–107
- Q423.1Julian Champagnie enters the game for Bismack Biyombo103–107
- Q423.1Jose Alvarado enters the game for Yves Missi103–107
- Q423.1De'Aaron Fox traveling103–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:25Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)SA 94 – 99 NO · NO 64% → 79% +16NO 64% → 79%+16 pts
- Q45:03Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointerSA 97 – 99 NO · SA 20% → 36% +16SA 20% → 36%+16 pts
- Q44:27De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Devin Vassell assists)SA 100 – 99 NO · SA 35% → 55% +20SA 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q44:11CJ McCollum makes driving layupSA 100 – 101 NO · NO 45% → 59% +14NO 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q43:27Trey Murphy III makes dunkSA 100 – 103 NO · NO 59% → 73% +14NO 59% → 73%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML SA +115 / NO -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NO: Elo 54.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -124
- SA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.5 – 121.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | +13 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +30 Elo | NO 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 110.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 118.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −8.429th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 108.326th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 116.528th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.48th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 10–1924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–30 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.