San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints18
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds10
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints22
- Jose AlvaradoAssists8
- Kelly OlynykRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–114
- Q45.0Jordan McLaughlin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)96–114
- Q420.1Malaki Branham defensive rebound93–114
- Q424.1Antonio Reeves misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot93–114
- Q434.0Jose Alvarado defensive rebound93–114
- Q436.1Malaki Branham misses 26-foot three point jumper93–114
- Q444.1Jordan Hawkins makes tip shot93–114
- Q444.1Jordan Hawkins offensive rebound93–112
- Q445.0Jordan Hawkins misses layup93–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:27Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)SA 70 – 63 NO · NO 20% → 28% +8NO 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q325.0Zion Williamson makes layup (Jose Alvarado assists)SA 77 – 73 NO · NO 29% → 36% +7NO 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q30.0Karlo Matkovic makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Zion Williamson assists)SA 79 – 75 NO · NO 28% → 36% +7NO 28% → 36%+7 pts
- Q410:31Jordan Hawkins makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)SA 79 – 79 NO · NO 39% → 52% +13NO 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q49:49Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Jose Alvarado assists)SA 79 – 81 NO · NO 52% → 61% +9NO 52% → 61%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML SA +110 / NO -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- NO 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- NO: Elo 47.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -119
- SA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 120.0 – 122.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +7 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +19 Elo | SA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 110.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 119.326th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −8.829th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 108.326th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 117.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.38th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 9–1927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–29 | 23–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 17–19 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders | 30–24 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–3 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.