New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Yves MissiPoints24
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists8
- Kelly OlynykRebounds7
Suns- Bol BolPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–125
- Q45.0shot clock turnover108–125
- Q429.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Jordan Hawkins assists)108–125
- Q442.1Collin Gillespie makes 17-foot pullup jump shot106–125
- Q453.0Bol Bol defensive rebound106–123
- Q454.1Jamal Cain misses free throw 2 of 2106–123
- Q454.1Jamal Cain makes free throw 1 of 2106–123
- Q454.1Collin Gillespie personal foul105–123
- Q41:01Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound105–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:38Kevin Durant makes 9-foot two point shotNO 0 – 2 PHX · PHX 75% → 78% +3PHX 75% → 78%+3 pts
- Q111:15Yves Missi makes dunk (Bruce Brown assists)NO 2 – 2 PHX · NO 22% → 25% +3NO 22% → 25%+3 pts
- Q110:24Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)NO 2 – 6 PHX · PHX 76% → 81% +5PHX 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q19:01Nick Richards makes 15-foot jumper (Devin Booker assists)NO 6 – 10 PHX · PHX 78% → 81% +3PHX 78% → 81%+3 pts
- Q18:32Bol Bol makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)NO 6 – 13 PHX · PHX 81% → 85% +4PHX 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML NO +280 / PHX -360
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5
- PHX 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 69.9%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -297
- NO +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.0 – 118.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −71 | −10 | NO: Missing Zion Williamson −66, CJ McCollum −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +147 Elo | PHX 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 113.813th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 115.927th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 16–1214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−71 Elo- Zion Williamson return to competition reconditioning−66 Elo
- CJ McCollum rest−24 Elo
Suns
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–33 | 21–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 19–25 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–26 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–2 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.