San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints22
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Stephon CastleRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Julius RandleAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–141
- Q41.1Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound124–141
- Q44.1Blake Wesley misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot124–141
- Q417.2Josh Minott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)124–141
- Q429.1Blake Wesley out of bounds lost ball turnover124–138
- Q433.1Rob Dillingham bad pass (Blake Wesley steals)124–138
- Q448.1Julian Champagnie makes driving layup124–138
- Q41:00Blake Wesley defensive rebound122–138
- Q41:04Luka Garza misses 25-foot three point jumper122–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q232.0De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three pointerSA 60 – 65 MIN · SA 11% → 15% +5SA 11% → 15%+5 pts
- Q210.1Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)SA 60 – 68 MIN · MIN 85% → 89% +5MIN 85% → 89%+5 pts
- Q38:16Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)SA 73 – 81 MIN · MIN 84% → 89% +5MIN 84% → 89%+5 pts
- Q35:56Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)SA 79 – 88 MIN · MIN 86% → 91% +5MIN 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q33:24Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 88 – 94 MIN · SA 9% → 14% +5SA 9% → 14%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML SA +425 / MIN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -11.5
- MIN 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 86.1%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -455
- SA +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.5 – 121.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +24 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +316 Elo | MIN 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 81.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 112.420th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 109.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 17–1415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–34 | 29–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 18–24 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–5 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.