Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints41
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds11
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints32
- Chris PaulAssists6
- Stephon CastleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game146–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter146–132
- Q44.1Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 1 of 1146–132
- Q44.1Alex Ducas shooting foul146–131
- Q44.1Jordan McLaughlin makes driving layup (David Duke Jr. assists)146–131
- Q49.1David Duke Jr. defensive rebound146–129
- Q414.1Ousmane Dieng misses 27-foot three point jumper146–129
- Q428.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 2 of 2146–129
- Q428.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 1 of 2146–128
- Q428.1Aaron Wiggins shooting foul146–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q244.1Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)OKC 66 – 75 SA · SA 37% → 46% +8SA 37% → 46%+8 pts
- Q22.1Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 72 – 77 SA · OKC 56% → 65% +8OKC 56% → 65%+8 pts
- Q311:25Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 75 – 79 SA · OKC 58% → 67% +8OKC 58% → 67%+8 pts
- Q35:13Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point shot (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 94 – 92 SA · OKC 71% → 79% +8OKC 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q410:11Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 111 – 105 SA · OKC 80% → 88% +8OKC 80% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML OKC -900 / SA +550
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12.5
- OKC 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.9%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -585
- SA +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 126.5 – 113.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | −20 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +344 Elo | OKC 87.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 85.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 112.717th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 114.719th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 110.819th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.2 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–7 | Road vs home | 14–1320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–23 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–2 SA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.