Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints23
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–119
- Q419.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound135–119
- Q423.0Georges Niang misses layup135–119
- Q427.1Cason Wallace bad pass (Dominick Barlow steals)135–119
- Q444.1Cason Wallace defensive rebound135–119
- Q448.1Georges Niang misses 25-foot three point jumper135–119
- Q459.0Adam Flagler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)135–119
- Q41:02Aaron Wiggins offensive rebound132–119
- Q41:05Cason Wallace misses 25-foot three point jumper132–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:53Jalen Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 5 – 0 ATL · OKC 84% → 88% +4OKC 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q226.1Caris LeVert makes 23-foot three point shot (Trae Young assists)OKC 69 – 64 ATL · ATL 11% → 16% +5ATL 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q310:58Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 74 – 64 ATL · OKC 88% → 92% +4OKC 88% → 92%+4 pts
- Q38:34Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 81 – 69 ATL · OKC 90% → 94% +3OKC 90% → 94%+3 pts
- Q38:21Trae Young makes 28-foot three pointerOKC 81 – 72 ATL · ATL 6% → 10% +3ATL 6% → 10%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML OKC -575 / ATL +425
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 84.2%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -447
- ATL +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 128.5 – 118.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1712 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +67 | +15 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +290 Elo | OKC 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 84.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Points allowed | 119.227th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 110.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.1 | Defense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–7 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–23 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–22 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.