Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints18
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–131
- Q46.1shot clock turnover109–131
- Q430.1Onyeka Okongwu lost ball turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)109–131
- Q443.0Pelle Larsson enters the game for Tyler Herro109–131
- Q443.0Kel'el Ware enters the game for Bam Adebayo109–131
- Q443.0shot clock turnover109–131
- Q41:08Bam Adebayo defensive rebound109–131
- Q41:08Caris LeVert misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot109–131
- Q41:19Terance Mann defensive rebound109–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:45Mouhamed Gueye makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 79 – 78 MIA · ATL 38% → 48% +10ATL 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q37:14Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointerATL 82 – 79 MIA · ATL 45% → 55% +10ATL 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q35:44Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)ATL 84 – 84 MIA · MIA 45% → 55% +10MIA 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q35:23Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 87 – 84 MIA · ATL 45% → 55% +10ATL 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q33:02Davion Mitchell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyler Herro assists)ATL 89 – 96 MIA · MIA 69% → 78% +9MIA 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML ATL +130 / MIA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- ATL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.5 – 116.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −26 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +17 Elo | ATL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 109.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 110.77th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.3 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 110.519th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–30 | 21–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 8–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.