Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints40
- Tyler HerroAssists11
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints28
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q410.0Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound113–120
- Q413.1Andrew Wiggins misses 23-foot three point jumper113–120
- Q422.1Damian Lillard makes driving layup113–120
- Q442.0Bam Adebayo makes 10-foot two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)113–118
- Q455.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot111–118
- Q455.1Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound111–116
- Q457.1Brook Lopez misses 27-foot three point jumper111–116
- Q41:15(01:15) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)111–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:00AJ Green makes 27-foot three point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIA 95 – 100 MIL · MIL 64% → 77% +12MIL 64% → 77%+12 pts
- Q45:02Tyler Herro makes 18-foot step back jumpshotMIA 106 – 106 MIL · MIA 34% → 46% +12MIA 34% → 46%+12 pts
- Q44:48Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three pointerMIA 106 – 109 MIL · MIL 54% → 72% +18MIL 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q43:19Tyler Herro makes 30-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 109 – 109 MIL · MIA 25% → 47% +22MIA 25% → 47%+22 pts
- Q42:55Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIA 109 – 112 MIL · MIL 53% → 76% +23MIL 53% → 76%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -3.5
- ML MIA +150 / MIL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- MIA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 108.5 – 112.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −12 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −12 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +128 Elo | MIL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 113.812th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 112.112th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 112.512th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−12 Elo- Bobby Portis suspended by league−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–33 | 26–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–25 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.