Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints23
- Tyler HerroAssists3
- Kel'el WareRebounds15
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints17
- Trae YoungAssists14
- Dyson DanielsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–98
- Q49.1shot clock turnover86–98
- Q433.1Hawks Full timeout86–98
- Q433.1Andrew Wiggins lost ball turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)86–98
- Q433.1(00:33.8) [Hawks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Hawks] retain their timeout86–98
- Q433.1Hawks Full timeout86–98
- Q442.0Dyson Daniels makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Trae Young assists)86–98
- Q41:01Bam Adebayo lost ball turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)86–96
- Q41:09Kyle Anderson defensive rebound86–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:33Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MIA 35 – 41 ATL · ATL 62% → 70% +8ATL 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q21:38Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MIA 37 – 44 ATL · ATL 65% → 72% +8ATL 65% → 72%+8 pts
- Q311:10Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 47 – 52 ATL · MIA 24% → 32% +8MIA 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q34:22Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIA 61 – 66 ATL · MIA 21% → 30% +9MIA 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q49:14Alec Burks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 71 – 78 ATL · MIA 11% → 19% +8MIA 11% → 19%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML MIA +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 115.0 – 117.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | +23 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +82 Elo | ATL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 117.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 119.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −2.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 110.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–34 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 8–16 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.