San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints24
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points42
- Santi AldamaAssists11
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–128
- Q40.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound130–128
- Q40.1Santi Aldama misses 62-foot three point shot130–128
- Q42.1De'Aaron Fox makes 20-foot step back jumpshot130–128
- Q422.1Spurs Full timeout128–128
- Q423.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot128–128
- Q429.1Grizzlies Full timeout128–125
- Q429.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 3 of 3128–125
- Q429.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 3127–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:37Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot two point shotSA 125 – 123 MEM · MEM 14% → 31% +17MEM 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q449.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot two point shot (Santi Aldama assists)SA 125 – 125 MEM · MEM 23% → 52% +29MEM 23% → 52%+29 pts
- Q429.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 3SA 126 – 125 MEM · SA 48% → 68% +20SA 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q423.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point shotSA 128 – 128 MEM · MEM 4% → 51% +47MEM 4% → 51%+47 pts
- Q42.1De'Aaron Fox makes 20-foot step back jumpshotSA 130 – 128 MEM · SA 50% → >99% +50SA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML SA +175 / MEM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5
- MEM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MEM: Elo 68.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -186
- SA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.5 – 124.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | −18 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +134 Elo | MEM 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 116.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +6.64th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 115.56th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 109.36th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 106.41st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 22–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–32 | 35–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 25–14 |
| Underdog | 17–22 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–6 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.