San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints22
- Stephon CastleAssists5
- Stephon CastleRebounds7
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints25
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–118
- Q46.0shot clock turnover106–118
- Q431.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound106–118
- Q432.1Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 24-foot three point jumper106–118
- Q437.08 second turnover106–118
- Q445.0Jock Landale defensive rebound106–118
- Q447.1Malaki Branham misses 23-foot three point jumper106–118
- Q455.0Nate Williams personal foul106–118
- Q455.1Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound106–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27Jabari Smith Jr. makes 11-foot two point shotSA 0 – 2 HOU · HOU 72% → 75% +3HOU 72% → 75%+3 pts
- Q19:47Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)SA 4 – 11 HOU · HOU 78% → 83% +4HOU 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q19:24Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)SA 4 – 14 HOU · HOU 83% → 86% +4HOU 83% → 86%+4 pts
- Q19:07De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 7 – 14 HOU · SA 14% → 17% +4SA 14% → 17%+4 pts
- Q211:02Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)SA 25 – 36 HOU · SA 9% → 12% +3SA 9% → 12%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML SA +240 / HOU -300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.0%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -255
- SA +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.0 – 117.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | −28 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −14, Fred VanVleet −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +139 Elo | HOU 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 112.717th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 108.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +3.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 111.116th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 19–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−28 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−14 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–31 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 21–19 |
| Underdog | 17–21 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–5 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.