Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints27
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints25
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–100
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound97–100
- Q40.0Damian Lillard misses 32-foot three point shot97–100
- Q43.1Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Alperen Sengun (Damian Lillard gains possession)97–100
- Q43.1Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Steven Adams97–100
- Q43.1Jalen Green enters the game for Aaron Holiday97–100
- Q43.1Alperen Sengun double lane violation97–100
- Q43.1Damian Lillard double lane violation97–100
- Q43.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jalen Green97–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:38Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three pointerMIL 90 – 92 HOU · MIL 21% → 36% +15MIL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q43:04Jalen Green makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 91 – 95 HOU · HOU 60% → 81% +21HOU 60% → 81%+21 pts
- Q42:45Damian Lillard makes 21-foot step back jumpshotMIL 93 – 95 HOU · MIL 18% → 32% +14MIL 18% → 32%+14 pts
- Q430.0Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 95 – 97 HOU · HOU 70% → 85% +15HOU 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q48.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 97 – 98 HOU · MIL <1% → 16% +16MIL <1% → 16%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML MIL +120 / HOU -140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −15 | MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −11 · HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 112.916th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 109.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +3.97th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 111.315th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 107.43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 18–97th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−7 Elo- Bobby Portis suspended by league−11 Elo
Rockets
−15 Elo- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–30 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.