New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints23
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Jalen BrunsonRebounds7
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints25
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Desmond BaneRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound114–113
- Q40.0Santi Aldama misses tip shot114–113
- Q40.1Santi Aldama offensive rebound114–113
- Q40.1Ja Morant misses two point shot114–113
- Q44.1Miles McBride enters the game for Jalen Brunson114–113
- Q44.1Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns114–113
- Q44.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.114–113
- Q44.1Grizzlies Full timeout114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:00Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotNY 108 – 108 MEM · NY 29% → 49% +19NY 29% → 49%+19 pts
- Q424.1Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerNY 111 – 110 MEM · NY 12% → 71% +59NY 12% → 71%+59 pts
- Q414.1Ja Morant makes driving layupNY 111 – 112 MEM · MEM 23% → 78% +54MEM 23% → 78%+54 pts
- Q414.1Ja Morant makes free throw 1 of 1NY 111 – 113 MEM · MEM 78% → 93% +16MEM 78% → 93%+16 pts
- Q45.1OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 114 – 113 MEM · NY <1% → 89% +88NY <1% → 89%+88 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML NY +120 / MEM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MEM: Elo 58.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -130
- NY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 121.0 – 123.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +46 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +59 Elo | MEM 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 116.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +6.74th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 115.66th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 109.36th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 106.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 22–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–31 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 25–13 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–24 | 37–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–0 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.