Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Donte DiVincenzoPoints15
- Julius RandleAssists9
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds13
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–104
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound106–104
- Q41.0Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point shot106–104
- Q41.2Julius Randle enters the game for Mike Conley106–104
- Q41.2Mike Conley out of bounds bad pass turnover106–104
- Q43.0Duncan Robinson makes 28-foot three pointer106–104
- Q47.1Mike Conley enters the game for Julius Randle106–101
- Q47.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Davion Mitchell106–101
- Q47.1Kyle Anderson enters the game for Pelle Larsson106–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:56Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mike Conley assists)MIN 83 – 85 MIA · MIN 33% → 46% +13MIN 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q46:39Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 92 – 92 MIA · MIN 37% → 53% +16MIN 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q45:12Anthony Edwards makes 30-foot three pointerMIN 95 – 92 MIA · MIN 53% → 71% +18MIN 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q44:57Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIN 95 – 95 MIA · MIA 29% → 47% +18MIA 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q44:42Naz Reid makes 28-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 98 – 95 MIA · MIN 53% → 72% +19MIN 53% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -155 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- MIA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.0 – 107.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −30 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kel'el Ware −9, Andrew Wiggins −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +153 Elo | MIN 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 110.225th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 110.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 111.317th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 15–1215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−30 Elo- Kel'el Ware left knee sprain−9 Elo
- Andrew Wiggins right ankle sprain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–35 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–28 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.