Washington Wizards at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Khris MiddletonPoints16
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds8
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints19
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–106
- Q44.1Justin Champagnie makes driving layup (Bub Carrington assists)90–106
- Q415.1shot clock turnover88–106
- Q439.1Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 1 of 188–106
- Q439.1Pelle Larsson shooting foul87–106
- Q439.1Tristan Vukcevic makes 1-foot layup (Justin Champagnie assists)87–106
- Q457.1Haywood Highsmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)85–106
- Q41:21Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 285–103
- Q41:21Anthony Gill makes free throw 1 of 284–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:57Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 5 – 4 MIA · WSH 23% → 28% +5WSH 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q15:28Alec Burks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)WSH 13 – 13 MIA · MIA 67% → 73% +6MIA 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q14:55Bub Carrington makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 16 – 15 MIA · WSH 24% → 29% +6WSH 24% → 29%+6 pts
- Q14:36Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)WSH 16 – 18 MIA · MIA 71% → 76% +6MIA 71% → 76%+6 pts
- Q13:45Haywood Highsmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)WSH 19 – 24 MIA · MIA 76% → 81% +5MIA 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML WSH +275 / MIA -350
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.2%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -292
- WSH +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.0 – 113.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1302 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | −7 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kel'el Ware −10, Andrew Wiggins −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +157 Elo | MIA 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 110.325th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 110.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.5 | Margin | −0.617th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 111.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 14–1217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−7 Elo- Kel'el Ware left knee sprain−10 Elo
- Andrew Wiggins right ankle sprain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–32 | 24–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 27–32 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.