Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints17
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists8
- Richaun HolmesRebounds9
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints24
- Miles BridgesAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–100
- Q418.0Mark Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Damion Baugh assists)113–100
- Q434.1Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2113–98
- Q434.1Jalen McDaniels enters the game for Khris Middleton112–98
- Q434.1Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2112–98
- Q434.1Mark Williams shooting foul111–98
- Q447.1DaQuan Jeffries makes 16-foot two point shot111–98
- Q41:10DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Josh Green111–96
- Q41:10Khris Middleton out of bounds lost ball turnover111–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:45Richaun Holmes makes 1-foot two point shot (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 38 – 31 CHA · WSH 48% → 58% +10WSH 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q38:39Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point shot (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 66 – 64 CHA · WSH 40% → 49% +9WSH 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q37:50Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 69 – 68 CHA · WSH 37% → 46% +9WSH 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q35:30Kyshawn George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 76 – 70 CHA · WSH 54% → 64% +10WSH 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q34:09Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Richaun Holmes assists)WSH 79 – 72 CHA · WSH 58% → 68% +10WSH 58% → 68%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -3.5
- ML WSH +145 / CHA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- CHA: Elo 49.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHA -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.5 – 115.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1290 | 1273 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −14 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +5 Elo | WSH 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 105.228th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 112.813th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.9 | Margin | −7.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 104.929th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–22 | Road vs home | 9–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–32 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 26–32 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 22–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–2 CHA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.